IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR5) – Summary for Policymakers

IPCC AR5 WG1 Cover

The Working Group I contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (WGI AR5) provides a comprehensive assessment of the physical science basis of climate change, drawing on the scientific literature accepted for publication up to 15 March 2013. The WGI AR5 Summary for Policymakers was approved at the Twelfth Session of Working Group I, held in Stockholm, Sweden, from 23 to 26 September, 2013. The Session also accepted the underlying scientific and technical assessment.

The Summary for Policymakers has been released today. The accepted Final Draft of the full Working Group I report, comprising the Technical Summary, 14 Chapters and three Annexes, will be released online in unedited form on Monday 30 September. Following copy-editing, layout, final checks for errors, and adjustments for changes for consistency with the Summary for Policymakers, it will be published online tentatively in January 2014 and in book form by Cambridge University Press a few months later.

Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis

Report by Chapters:

Technical Summary
  1. Introduction
  2. Observations: Atmosphere and Surface
  3. Observations: Ocean
  4. Observations: Cryosphere
  5. Information from Paleoclimate Archives
  6. Carbon and Other Biogeochemical Cycles
  7. Clouds and Aerosols
  8. Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing
  9. Evaluation of Climate Models
  10. Detection and Attribution of Climate Change: from Global to Regional
  11. Near-term Climate Change: Projections and Predictability
  12. Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility
  13. Sea Level Change
  14. Climate Phenomena and their Relevance for Future Regional Climate Change
Annex I: Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections
Annex II: Glossary
Annex III: Acronyms and Regional Abbreviations

Changes to the Underlying Scientific/Technical Assessment (IPCC-XXVI/Doc.4)

Complete Underlying Scientific/Technical Assessment (2216 pages, 166MB)

The published headline statements paint a gloomy future even if all nations immediately cut down their carbon emissions. For those demanding the absolute truth, you can read up the details in the attached 36-page PDF or you can read coverage reports from major news agencies at the end of the article. In short, this is a wake up call for every nation across the globe, this would be potentially the end of humanity as we know it if nothing is being done. In case you are doubtful about the validity of the report, here are some background facts:

The IPCC WG1 has 259 authors from 39 countries and the report received a total of 54,677 comments  from expert reviewers and government internationally. The report was released based on over 2 million gigabytes of numerical data from climate model simulations and over 9,200 published scientific citations.


  • Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, sea level has risen, and the concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased.
  • Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850. In the Northern Hemisphere, 1983–2012 was likely the warmest 30-year period of the last 1400 years.
  • Ocean warming dominates the increase in energy stored in the climate system, accounting for more than 90% of the energy accumulated between 1971 and 2010 (high confidence). It is virtually certain that the upper ocean (0−700 m) warmed from 1971 to 2010, and it likely warmed between the 1870s and 1971.
  • Over the last two decades, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have been losing mass, glaciers have continued to shrink almost worldwide, and Arctic sea ice and Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover have continued to decrease in extent (high confidence).
  • The rate of sea level rise since the mid-19th century has been larger than the mean rate during the previous two millennia (high confidence). Over the period 1901–2010, global mean sea level rose by 0.19 [0.17 to 0.21] m.
  • The atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane, and nitrous oxide have increased to levels unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years. CO2 concentrations have increased by 40% since pre-industrial times, primarily from fossil fuel emissions and secondarily from net land use change emissions. The ocean has absorbed about 30% of the emitted anthropogenic carbon dioxide, causing ocean acidification.
  • Total radiative forcing is positive, and has led to an uptake of energy by the climate system. The largest contribution to total radiative forcing is caused by the increase in the atmospheric concentration of CO2 since 1750.
  • Human influence on the climate system is clear. This is evident from the increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, positive radiative forcing, observed warming, and understanding of the climate system.
  • Climate models have improved since the AR4. Models reproduce observed continental-scale surface temperature patterns and trends over many decades, including the more rapid warming since the mid-20th century and the cooling immediately following large volcanic eruptions (very high confidence).
  • Observational and model studies of temperature change, climate feedbacks and changes in the Earth’s energy budget together provide confidence in the magnitude of global warming in response to past and future forcing.
  • Human influence has been detected in warming of the atmosphere and the ocean, in changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, in global mean sea level rise, and in changes in some climate extremes. This evidence for human influence has grown since AR4. It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century.
  • Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and changes in all components of the climate system. Limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions.
  • Global surface temperature change for the end of the 21st century is likely to exceed 1.5°C relative to 1850 to 1900 for all RCP scenarios except RCP2.6. It is likely to exceed 2°C for RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, and more likely than not to exceed 2°C for RCP4.5. Warming will continue beyond 2100 under all RCP scenarios except RCP2.6. Warming will continue to exhibit interannual-todecadal variability and will not be regionally uniform.
  • Changes in the global water cycle in response to the warming over the 21st century will not be uniform. The contrast in precipitation between wet and dry regions and between wet and dry seasons will increase, although there may be regional exceptions.
  • The global ocean will continue to warm during the 21st century. Heat will penetrate from the surface to the deep ocean and affect ocean circulation.
  • It is very likely that the Arctic sea ice cover will continue to shrink and thin and that Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover will decrease during the 21st century as global mean surface temperature rises. Global glacier volume will further decrease.
  • Global mean sea level will continue to rise during the 21st century. Under all RCP scenarios the rate of sea level rise will very likely exceed that observed during 1971–2010 due to increased ocean warming and increased loss of mass from glaciers and ice sheets.
  • Climate change will affect carbon cycle processes in a way that will exacerbate the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere (high confidence). Further uptake of carbon by the ocean will increase ocean acidification.
  • Cumulative emissions of CO2 largely determine global mean surface warming by the late 21st century and beyond. Most aspects of climate change will persist for many centuries even if emissions of CO2 are stopped. This represents a substantial multi-century climate change commitment created by past, present and future emissions of CO2.

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